Bafana Must Top Group or Face Elimination After CAF’s Runners-Up Rule Revision
South Africa’s path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become even tougher after CAF revised its runners-up qualification rules, scrapping all points earned against the bottom team in each group.
The change, introduced to ensure fairness after Eritrea’s withdrawal, means Bafana Bafana’s four points against Zimbabwe no longer count, dropping them to 11 points.
This revision reshuffles the rankings for second-placed teams and heavily impacts South Africa, who now cannot qualify via the runners-up route.
To stay in contention, Bafana must secure an outright victory over Rwanda and finish top of Group C — ahead of both Benin and Nigeria. Anything less, and South Africa’s World Cup dream is over.
The complete ranking of the best runners-up stands as follows:
Gabon – 16 pts (7 matches)
Cameroon – 15 pts (8 matches)
Burkina Faso – 15 pts (8 matches)
Niger – 15 pts (8 matches)
DR Congo – 13 pts (7 matches)
Madagascar – 13 pts (8 matches)
Uganda – 12 pts (7 matches)
South Africa – 11 pts (7 matches)
Namibia – 9 pts (8 matches)
According to CAF regulations, the four best second-placed teams across all qualifying groups will advance to a play-off tournament, which will consist of two semi-finals and a final.
The winner of that final will then move on to represent Africa in the FIFA Intercontinental Play-off Tournament, where a final World Cup spot will be at stake.